Western States Odds

Plenty of guys out there offering odds on Western States right. Try irunfar's outstanding site with a prediction table to be launched here.

From a British perspective it is going to be the first time that arguably the three fastest Brits over the 100 mile distance are going to go head to head. Nick Clark has had another fantastic season and continues to go from strength to strength each year that passes. Ian Sharman ran top 10 in his first ever Western States last year and followed that with a 12:44 over 100 miles at Rocky Raccoon in February setting a North American Trail 100 record which I was lucky enough to witness. Finally Jez Bragg has just crushed the course at the Fellsman and is a previous podium finisher at the race in 2009. Nick and Ian went head to head at American River 50 just a couple of months ago and Nick won out by under a minute passing Ian on the final stretches of the course.

I think the battle for the win is going to be played out by 4 of the same 5 as last year, Geoff Roes, Killian Jornet, Hal Koerner and Nick Clark. Anton Krupicka the ultra running worlds favourite minimalist runner has broken his leg just this week so won't start. You can look for Ian to fill that 5th spot somewhere and Dave Mackey who has won everything he has entered pretty much this year, in front of very strong fields to be there too. Here is my prediction for Mens Top 10:

1. Jornet
2. Roes
3. Clark
4. Mackey
5. Wolfe
6. Sharman
7. Koerner
8. Bragg
9. Redpath
10. Braje

This is the most closely followed ultra race pretty much anywhere and each year that goes by the coverage improves. This year the webcast is already live and there is now a mobile phone app for following every step of the race. http://www.ultralive.net/ws100/webcast.php

Finally, the snow remains at the higher altitude and the pre race e mail this week stated that as runners we can expect snow to cover the first 20 - 30 miles of the course, that it will likely slow everyones anticipated times down by an additional hour. That is why I am pipping Roes and Jornet for the top spots. Both are the fastest proven guys but also train hundreds of hours a year in and out of snow.

It remains to be seen how far I'll get on the course but at this stage with the pain abating in my shin finally, it looks like I'll line up. No guarantees and feel free to follow me Bib No. 84 (type number into top right box on above webcast link to pull up results). If I make it to Red Star Ridge at Mile 16 it will be longest run since Rocky Raccoon on February 5th.